[1]陈兆芳,建骅.基于变周期三角函数—灰色GM(1，1)模型的设备故障间隔时间预测[J].福建工程学院学报,2018,16(01):50-54.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1672-4348.2018.01.010]
　CHEN Zhaofang,WANG Chien-Hua.Prediction of interval time between failures based on improved[J].Journal of FuJian University of Technology,2018,16(01):50-54.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1672-4348.2018.01.010]
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基于变周期三角函数—灰色GM(1，1)模型的设备故障间隔时间预测()
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《福建工程学院学报》[ISSN:2097-3853/CN:35-1351/Z]

卷:
第16卷
期数:
2018年01期
页码:
50-54
栏目:
出版日期:
2018-02-25

文章信息/Info

Title:
Prediction of interval time between failures based on improved
作者:
陈兆芳; 建骅
福建工程学院管理学院
Author(s):
CHEN Zhaofang;  WANG Chien-Hua
School of Management, Fujian University of Technology
关键词:
灰色模型GM(1; 1);  变周期三角函数—灰色模型GM(1; 1);  故障间隔时间;  预测
Keywords:
grey model (GM) (1;  1);  trigonometric function with variable periods— GM(1; 1) ;  intervals between failures;  prediction
分类号:
N945.1
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.1672-4348.2018.01.010
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
针对设备故障预测模型难以精确建立的特点，为提高故障间隔时间预测的精确度，提出了变周期三角函数-灰色模型GM(1,1)的预测方法。该方法在三角函数-灰色模型GM(1，1)基础上，建立了变周期三角函数—灰色GM(1,1)的组合模型，实现了对设备故障间隔时间的预测；并将预测结果与三角函数-灰色模型GM(1,1)进行对比，结果表明，采用变周期三角函数-灰色模型GM(1,1)对故障间隔时间进行预测，其预测结果的相对误差由24.16%降到3.24%，提高了预测结果的精度。
Abstract:
It is difficult to accurately establish the model of equipment failure prediction, so the trigonometric function with variable periods—GM(1,1) was proposed as a method to improve the accuracy of failure interval time prediction. Based on the trigonometric function-GM(1, 1), a combined model of trigonometric function with variable periods— GM (1,1) was set up to predict the interval time between equipment failures. The prediction results were compared with trigonometric function-GM (1, 1), and results show that by using the new model to predict the time between failures, the relative error of prediction results decreased from 24.16% to 3.24%. Therefore, the new model has greatly improved the prediction accuracy.

参考文献/References:

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更新日期/Last Update: 2018-02-25